Parallel evolution and control method for predicting the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in pandemics.

Aim: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important strategies to utilize in reducing the negative systemic impact pandemic disasters have on human health. However, early on in the pandemic, the lack of prior knowledge and the rapidly changing nature of pandemics make it challenging to construct effective epidemiological models that can be used for anti-contagion decision-making. Subject and methods: Based on the parallel control and management theory (PCM) and epidemiological models, we developed a Parallel Evolution and Control Framework for Epidemics (PECFE), which can optimize epidemiological models according to the dynamic information during the evolution of pandemics. Results: The cross-application between PCM and epidemiological models enabled us to successfully construct an anti-contagion decision-making model for the early stages of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Using the model, we estimated the effects of gathering bans, intra-city traffic blockades, emergency hospitals, and disinfection, forecasted pandemic trends under different NPIs strategies, and analyzed specific strategies to prevent pandemic rebounds. Conclusion: The successful simulation and forecasting of the pandemic showed that the PECFE could be effective in constructing decision models during pandemic outbreaks, which is crucial for emergency management where every second counts. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01843-2.

Parallel simulation and optimization framework of supplies production processes for unconventional emergencies.

The outbreak of unconventional emergencies leads to a surge in demand for emergency supplies. How to effectively arrange emergency production processes and improve production efficiency is significant. The emergency manufacturing systems are typically complex systems, which are difficult to be analyzed by using physical experiments. Based on the theory of Random Service System (RSS) and Parallel Emergency Management System (PeMS), a parallel simulation and optimization framework of production processes for surging demand of emergency supplies is constructed. Under this novel framework, an artificial system model paralleling with the real scenarios is established and optimized by the parallel implementation processes. Furthermore, a concrete example of mask shortage, which occurred at Huoshenshan Hospital in the COVID-19 pandemic, verifies the feasibility of this method.

The Impact of Individual Behaviors and Governmental Guidance Measures on Pandemic-Triggered Public Sentiment Based on System Dynamics and Cross-Validation.

Negative online public sentiment generated by government mishandling of pandemics and other disasters can easily trigger widespread panic and distrust, causing great harm. It is important to understand the law of public sentiment dissemination and use it in a timely and appropriate way. Using the big data of online public sentiment during the COVID-19 period, this paper analyzes and establishes a cross-validation based public sentiment system dynamics model which can simulate the evolution processes of public sentiment under the effects of individual behaviors and governmental guidance measures. A concrete case of a violation of relevant regulations during COVID-19 epidemic that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. By running the model, the results show that an increase in government responsiveness contributes to the spread of positive social sentiment but also promotes negative sentiment. Positive individual behavior suppresses negative emotions while promoting the spread of positive emotions. Changes in the disaster context (epidemic) have an impact on the spread of sentiment, but the effect is mediocre.

Parallel evolution and response decision method for public sentiment based on system dynamics.

Governments face difficulties in policy making in many areas such as health, food safety, and large-scale projects where public perceptions can be misplaced. For example, the adoption of the MMR vaccine has been opposed due to the publicity indicating an erroneous link between the vaccine and autism. This research proposes the "Parallel Evolution and Response Decision Framework for Public Sentiments" as a real-time decision-making method to simulate and control the public sentiment evolution mechanisms. This framework is based on the theories of Parallel Control and Management (PCM) and System Dynamics (SD) and includes four iterative steps: namely, SD modelling, simulating, optimizing, and controlling. A concrete case of an anti-nuclear mass incident that sparked public sentiment in China is introduced as a study sample to test the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, the results indicate the effects by adjusting the key control variables of response strategies. These variables include response time, response capacity, and transparency of the government regarding public sentiment. Furthermore, the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method will be analyzed to determine how it can be used by policy makers in predicting public opinion and offering effective response strategies.